Twenty-three candidates: it’s the most Jasper has ever seen in a municipal election. Such a broad range is exciting, but for many, overwhelming.
Dr. Patrick Smith, a professor with the political science department at Simon Fraser University, said so many candidates on a municipal election ballot points to something significant happening in Jasper and suggested it’s likely the result of a combination of factors.
Certainly there are contentious issues facing Jasper, things like construction delays, accountability and bylaw enforcement being the most prominent. Smith also noted that with fewer incumbents running, people may feel like they have a better chance of winning. And, of course, he said a desire for more diversity on council may have pushed others to throw in their hats.
Dr. Jim Lightbody agreed.
The chair of the University of Alberta’s political science department said Jasper is lucky to have so many candidates willing to put their names forward when many Alberta towns struggle to even find people to run. “You are blessed,” he said.
According to Beryl Cahill, Jasper’s returning officer, 1,256 people voted in the 2010 election. It’s tough to get up-to-date data, but she estimates that is about 33 to 35 per cent of eligible voters in town.
Smith points out “that’s not a lot of people” voting on a very packed ballot.
Because of that, he said, those votes could easily be thinly spread among all the candidates, meaning slim margins of victory for winning candidates.
Cahill noted, though, that when filling out a ballot, the electorate doesn’t have to select candidates to fill all seven spots, but rather can choose their top picks and leave the remainder blank. That could ensure there is a larger margin between candidates.
In Jasper’s last election, the difference between the winning and losing candidate was 50 votes. Cahill said in the past that margin has been as few as three.
So someone with a devoted group of voters could easily tip the scales in their favour. Smith said even a large family voting together could be enough.
It’s also possible that a candidate could rally voters around a single issue and ride that momentum to a council seat.
“If there’s a single hot issue, then somebody running on [it] could ride that horse right through,” Smith said.
In some towns, Smith has seen entire municipal councils replaced because of a single contentious issue.
Lightbody said while it’s “conceivable” a single-issue candidate could lock up a council seat, it probably won’t happen so easily.
He said voters are smart and, especially in a small town, will quickly realize which candidates are running on solid platforms, and which are running on “air.”
“By and large the balance will be towards those who are the most capable,” he said.
Smith said when Jasperites head to the polls Oct. 21, they need to keep all these things in mind.
Another unlikely but important thing to consider is the “fatigue factor” that arises when faced with a packed ballot.
It’s common, Lightbody said, for people to get overwhelmed and simply tick off the first few names they recognize. Past results have demonstrated candidates who appear at the top of the ballot have a better chance of getting elected.
It’s also important to consider the candidate’s platforms. Voters need to decide whether their candidate is running on a single contentious issue, or a complete platform.
Trevor Nichols
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