When Albertans head to the polls in October, many voters will be casting their ballots in a different constituency than they did during the last election, and that could lead to different results for different ridings.
In 2013, Elections Canada added 30 new seats across the country and redrew nearly 70 per cent of the country’s ridings to ensure that each riding represents roughly the same number of people and takes into account constitutional requirements.
As a result, there are six new seats up for grabs in Alberta, bringing the total number of ridings in the province to 34.
To accommodate the new ridings, Elections Canada redrew all 28 constituencies in the province, including Jasper’s Yellowhead riding.
The changes mean the Yellowhead riding will no longer include towns as far north as Whitecourt, Swan Hills and Barrhead.
Instead the riding will now include towns further to the south and east, such as Caroline, Rocky Mountain House, Warburg and Breton.
“Small changes to a constituency aren’t typically going to affect the outcome of the next election, but when there are significant changes and the changes are happening between constituencies that were already competitive then it can make a difference,” said Steve Patten, a political science professor at the University of Alberta.
Patten said the new boundaries in Yellowhead aren’t likely to have a significant impact on local election results because the constituency has long been a Conservative riding and the surrounding areas it’s absorbing have also traditionally voted Conservative.
“The Conservatives are far enough ahead that a small change in the boundaries won’t make a big difference,” said Patten, in reference to the Yellowhead riding.
“The amount that the Liberals or NDP would have to pull ahead is significant, but when you go through the constituencies where the Conservatives won by 15 per cent or 30 per cent, rather than 40 or 60 per cent, those are the ones where you have to watch the polls and know something about the boundaries.”
In November 2014, Conservative MP Jim Eglinski won with more than 62 per cent of the popular vote. Liberal candidate Ryan Maguhn garnered nearly 20 per cent of the vote, while NDP candidate Eric Rosendahl, who is now the MLA for West Yellowhead, won nearly 10 per cent of the vote. Independent candidate Dean Williams and Libertarian Cory Lystang each earned five per cent and three per cent of the vote, respectively.
Patten predicted opposition parties might be able to scoop up a few seats that were traditionally held by the Conservatives in Edmonton, Calgary and Lethbridge thanks to the creation of new ridings and adjusted boundaries.
“It would be wrong to say the boundaries have made more constituencies competitive, but the boundaries, combined with the shifting levels of public support, have changed Alberta from a place where maybe there was one constituency that was competitive to being a place where there’s six or seven constituencies that are competitive,” said Patten.
In 2011, the Conservative Party dominated Alberta, winning 27 of the province’s 28 seats. The NDP picked up the lone opposition seat for the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona.
Patten said the recent provincial election of Rachel Notley and the NDP could also help the federal NDP make inroads into Alberta.
“Rachel Notely and the NDP’s victory has already given them a bit of a boost, but in a scenario where the mood for change starts to grow and the Conservatives start to slip, the NDP now have the ability to appeal to Albertans without it seeming strange and unfamiliar, because they just did it at the province level,” said Patten.
So far four candidates have confirmed their candidacy for Yellowhead. The election is scheduled for Oct. 19.
Paul Clarke
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