The spread of mountain pine beetle in the area will likely be lessened this summer, however experts still predict the insects will continue to push east, threatening the nation’s boreal forest.

Alberta Sustainable Resource Development released its latest pine beetle numbers Tues. July 13, noting that beetle populations are similar to last year, however they still pose a large threat to the province’s forests and watershed. The province surveyed 211 sites across the province to determine beetle mortality.

Beetles in the Willmore and Grande Cache area had a low success rate, according to Erica Lee, senior health officer with SRD.

“We’re not expecting a lot of locally produced beetles, and there’s a moderate risk of beetles from British Columbia,” Lee said. “Rocky Mountain House reports a low beetle success rate as well.”

The main factor affecting mountain pine beetle survival rates is the cold, said Dr. Allan Carroll of the Canadian Forest Service. Sustained -40 degrees temperatures are required to stop the spread of the beetle, and Carroll said a mortality rate of 97 per cent must be achieved to see a decline in populations.

He also said while scientists predict a spread into the boreal forest, he doesn’t anticipate a large spread due to the sparseness of the trees.

“It probably can’t support a big spread,” Carroll said.

The province is spending an additional $10 million in emergency funding this summer to continue fighting the mountain pine beetle. 

‘We did receive $10 million for the pine beetle management program. Once we have our aerial surveys, we will assess our needs at that time,” Lee said.

Lee said most of the pine beetle work occurs in the winter, such as tree removal, and most of the funding is required at that time.

The beetles proved to have the most success north of Grand Prairie, where their success rate was classified as extremely high.

“The local mature pines are susceptible,” Lee said. “But the patchiness of the forest reduces the spread.”

Carroll said it’s important to fight the beetles north of Banff because there is no record of their existence in those locations.

“The Mountain Pine Beetle north of Banff... is an invasive species. It has the potential to upset the ecosystem.”

Lee added that the beetles have significant impacts on watershed hydrology, as less trees means water moves faster and in greater volumes.

“It can change water flows. There’s a shift in spring peak, the melt is faster and the soil can change. There is potential for more floods and larger variations in the flows,” Lee said.

Despite the continued presence of the beetles, Carroll said there is reason to be hopeful.

“The situation is the same as it was last year. That shows we’re controlling the situation and there is a strong management effect. The British Columbia population is collapsing, so the likelihood of success is high. Without (the program), we could lose a handle on it.”