Best of a bad lot in 2011 Print
ROBSON FLETCHER, EDITOR   
December 29, 2011


Looking back on 2011, many people would likely consider it a bad year, mostly due to money. There is a general malaise among Western democracies, in particular, which stems largely from the enormous and systemic economic problems which plague numerous nations’ public balance sheets as well as their private financial institutions.

This is reflected in opinion polls. A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, for example, found that 76 per cent of Americans considered 2011 to be a “below average” year or one of “the worst” years of their lives. The top three reasons cited for this unhappiness were the growing gap between the ultra-rich and the middle class, the lack of an economic recovery, and the failure of the U.S. Congress to reduce the national deficit.

The mood in places like Greece, Italy and Spain is even worse. High unemployment rates, devastating government austerity measures, and a general lack of hope for the future have led to frequent and large-scale public protests, at times turning violent. The United Kingdom is struggling with similar issues too, brought suddenly and painfully to the forefront of public attention by several days of rioting across the country this summer, mostly carried out by disaffected youth.

Canada, by contrast, has been financially and socially stable. We’ve been told – repeatedly – by our federal government that things are better here and, it seems, most of us believe it.

A recent Angus Reid/Macleans magazine survey found 42 per cent of Canadians think the country’s best days lie ahead rather than behind. That may not sound particularly optimistic but it’s significantly more hopeful than the responses garnered in similar surveys in the U.S. or Europe.

Indeed, 2011 was probably a better year for most Canadians compared to their counterparts south of the border or across the Atlantic. And we certainly have some good reasons to be optimistic about the future, as well. But, as much as we hate to crash a feel-good party, we can’t help but wonder if we’re maybe deluding ourselves, just a little.

The widespread gloom in the United States and across Europe this year didn’t just randomly appear in the last 12 months. The roots of the problems that have led to this point go back years, if not decades. A tendency for both individuals and governments to “kick the can down the road” when it comes to debtloads has finally come to a head in many countries. Meanwhile, major banks and investment agencies that took on massive amounts of risk failed spectacularly. They then came calling on these same, broke governments to bail them out.

While Canada’s national debt position and major banks are more sound than elsewhere, other economic conditions in this country are still cause for concern. Statistics Canada revealed in December that individual Canadians’ household debt levels have surged to a record-high 153 per cent of disposable income. That’s higher than the current rates in the U.S. or the U.K. and approaching the peak levels of household debt that both of those countries experienced in 2007, just before their economies experienced a major crash in 2008.

That crisis was largely triggered by a collapse in housing prices, which many analysts worry could happen soon in Canada as well. So far the real estate market has defied such predictions but with the average home-price-to-income ratio standing at about 5.5 – compared to a historical average of about 3.5 – it’s hard not to think that we are teetering on the edge of peak prices. Any shock to the economy could push us over the edge.

Canada is still probably one of the best places to have lived in 2011. But that shouldn’t lull us into a false sense of security as we look forward to 2012 and beyond. We ought not look at the plight of our friends and neighbours as if we are somehow immune to the problems they are experiencing. Rather, we should try to learn from their experience and remember that, there but for the grace of good governance, go we.

 
 

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